Schedule: a typical summer Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1453 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, September 30

AA 1453 · ORD → BDL

departs 7:04 PM CT · arrives 10:26 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at BDL more than 15 minutes late?

64% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BDL?

On time or early
35%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BDL

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.95 in

BDL (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1453 · ORD → BDL

Odds over time

How late will it get to BDL?