AA 1461 · BOS → LGA

took off 12:19 PM ET · landed 1:15 PM ET (scheduled 12:21 PM ET → 1:42 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to LGA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.02 in

LGA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1461 · BOS → LGA

Odds over time

How late did it get to LGA?