Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1506 LANDED 9:52 AM ET, ~6 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

AA 1506 · DFW → IND

took off 7:09 AM CT · landed 9:52 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 14h after departure

Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↑ Gusts to 30 kt, 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into IND at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts30 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.25 in

IND (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1506 · DFW → IND

Odds over time