AA 1528 · LAX → PHL

departs 8:00 AM PT · arrives 4:23 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±1 pts +12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ PHL is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1528 · LAX → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?