AA 1571 · LGA → BOS

departs 11:40 AM ET · arrives 12:57 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±0 pts +13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BOS?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at BOS that day

↑ This flight has been late 41% of the time recently

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BOS (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1571 · LGA → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?