AA 1578 · BOS → LAX

departs 5:33 PM ET · arrives 8:55 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 25h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±4 pts +19 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
26%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 5pm departures from BOS are often late

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1578 · BOS → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?