AA 1580 · DFW → TUS

departs 9:28 PM CT · arrives 9:59 PM MT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?

81% chance · ±3 pts +13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to TUS?

On time or early
15%
15–30 min late
26%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
14%
Cancelled
20%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 30 kt, 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ 9pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts30 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.25 in

TUS (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1580 · DFW → TUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to TUS?