Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1615 LANDED 4:02 PM ET, ~5 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

AA 1615 · DFW → MCO

took off 12:35 PM CT · landed 4:02 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

51% chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 30 kt, 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 12pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts30 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.25 in

MCO (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1615 · DFW → MCO

Odds over time