Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Wednesday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 164 SCHEDULED

Wednesday, September 30

AA 164 · HNL → LAX

departs 2:00 PM HT · arrives 10:36 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 2 mi, 1.8 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ HNL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.30 in

LAX (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 164 · HNL → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?