AA 166 · SFO → JFK

departs 12:10 PM PT · arrives 9:00 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±3 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 12pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 166 · SFO → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?