Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1677 LANDED 2:30 PM MT, ~2 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Today

AA 1677 · SMF → PHX

took off 1:06 PM PT · landed 2:30 PM MT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1677 · SMF → PHX

Odds over time