AA 1739 · PHL → STL

departs 9:01 AM ET · arrives 10:36 AM CT

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 14% of the time recently

↑ PHL is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

STL (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1739 · PHL → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?