Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1847 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

AA 1847 · DFW → FLL

departs 9:21 PM CT · arrives 12:53 AM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?

71% chance · ±4 pts +14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 30 kt, 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 9pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ FLL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts30 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.25 in

FLL (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1847 · DFW → FLL

Odds over time