AA 1872 · SEA → ORD

took off 6:27 AM PT · expected to land 11:47 AM CT (scheduled 6:19 AM PT → 12:24 PM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +18 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ORD?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from SEA are usually not late

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling3,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.65 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1872 · SEA → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?