AA 1981 · TPA → PHL

took off 1:03 PM ET · landed 3:17 PM ET (scheduled 12:22 PM ET → 3:07 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±1 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to PHL?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
✓
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.31 in

PHL (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1981 · TPA → PHL

Odds over time

How late did it get to PHL?