Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 199 LANDED 1:25 PM ET, ~22 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday

AA 199 · MXP → JFK

took off 11:21 AM CEST · landed 1:25 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 16h after departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

10% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MXP

↓ Other factors

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MXP (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

JFK (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 199 · MXP → JFK

Odds over time