AA 2016 · PHX → RNO

took off 1:58 PM MT · landed 3:28 PM PT (scheduled 1:45 PM MT → 3:49 PM PT)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to RNO?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 1pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ PHX is busy at that time

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RNO

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RNO (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2016 · PHX → RNO

Odds over time

How late did it get to RNO?