Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2053 IN THE AIR (OFF 8:48 AM CT, ETA 8:49 AM MT) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Today

AA 2053 · SAT → PHX

took off 8:48 AM CT · expected to land 8:49 AM MT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ 8am departures from SAT are usually not late

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

PHX (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2053 · SAT → PHX

Odds over time