Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2136 LANDED 11:39 AM ET, ~7 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

AA 2136 · DFW → MCO

took off 8:30 AM CT · landed 11:39 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±0 pts +16 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts30 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.25 in

MCO (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2136 · DFW → MCO

Odds over time