AA 2161 · SFO → PHL

departs 6:00 AM PT · arrives 2:35 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 12h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from SFO are usually not late

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling9,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2161 · SFO → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?