AA 2198 · AUS → DFW

departs 3:15 PM CT · arrives 4:37 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

60% chance · ±0 pts −11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
12%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ Gusts to 30 kt forecast at DFW that day

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at AUS that day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ AUS usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.17 in

DFW (destination) Gusts30 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.21 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2198 · AUS → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?