AA 2213 · DFW → PHL

departs 2:25 PM CT · arrives 6:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

48% chance · ±5 pts +16 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 31 kt forecast at DFW that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 2pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts31 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.12 in

PHL (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2213 · DFW → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?