Schedule: FAA flight plans.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2252 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME)

Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday

AA 2252 · PHL → LAX

took off 8:15 PM ET · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled 7:29 PM ET → 10:17 PM PT)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±1 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 7pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2252 · PHL → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?