Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 235 LANDED 12:52 PM ET, ~5 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

AA 235 · FCO → JFK

took off 10:31 AM CEST · landed 12:52 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 18h after departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at FCO

↓ Other factors

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

FCO (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

JFK (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 235 · FCO → JFK

Odds over time