AA 2418 · IND → ORD

departs 8:40 PM ET · arrives 9:04 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±2 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
40%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
19%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ IND usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

IND (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.95 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2418 · IND → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?