AA 2433 · ORD → AUS

departs 7:04 PM CT · arrives 9:48 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

90% chance · ±0 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
20%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
30%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
13%
Cancelled
8%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 7pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip1.03 in

AUS (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.15 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2433 · ORD → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?