AA 2444 · ORD → STL

departs 7:16 PM CT · arrives 8:39 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 7:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

88% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.86 in

STL (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2444 · ORD → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?