Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2453 LANDED 8:13 AM ET, ~11 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

AA 2453 · LAX → BOS

took off 12:10 AM PT · landed 8:13 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 19h after departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↑ LAX is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft forecast at LAX that day

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

BOS (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2453 · LAX → BOS

Odds over time