Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2465 LANDED 2:29 PM PT, ~5 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

AA 2465 · DFW → SNA

took off 1:52 PM CT · landed 2:29 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?

47% chance · ±0 pts +17 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 30 kt, 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 1pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts30 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.25 in

SNA (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2465 · DFW → SNA

Odds over time