Schedule: FAA flight plans.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2465 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME)

Wednesday, September 30

AA 2465 · SNA → DFW

took off 3:56 PM PT · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled 2:32 PM PT → 7:51 PM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

73% chance · ±4 pts +22 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
20%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
19%
Over 2 hours late
17%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 30 kt, 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA

Weather at each end

SNA (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts30 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.25 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2465 · SNA → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?