Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2482 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday

AA 2482 · ORD → SAN

departs 10:05 AM CT · arrives 12:27 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

64% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
36%
15–30 min late
29%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 10am departures from ORD are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.95 in

SAN (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2482 · ORD → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?