Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2515SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Today
AA 2515 · SBA → PHX
departs 7:15 PM PT · arrives 8:52 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 7h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
28%chance · ±0 pts−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE AREGood. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.