Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2628 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday

AA 2628 · DFW → OMA

departs 9:30 PM CT · arrives 11:22 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at OMA more than 15 minutes late?

74% chance · ±3 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to OMA?

On time or early
20%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
21%
Over 2 hours late
12%
Cancelled
22%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 30 kt, 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 9pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ OMA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts30 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.25 in

OMA (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.57 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2628 · DFW → OMA

Odds over time

How late will it get to OMA?