Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2740 LANDED 4:24 PM CT, ~7 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

AA 2740 · RSW → AUS

took off 2:35 PM ET · landed 4:24 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±0 pts −22 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ RSW usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

RSW (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

AUS (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.14 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2740 · RSW → AUS

Odds over time