AA 2768 · DFW → SAT

took off 2:19 PM CT · landed 3:05 PM CT (scheduled 12:04 PM CT → 1:22 PM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts +14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SAT?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
✓
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 30 kt, 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 12pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ Arrivals into SAT at that hour are usually not late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts30 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.25 in

SAT (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.23 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2768 · DFW → SAT

Odds over time

How late did it get to SAT?