AA 276 · SFO → JFK

departs 9:20 PM PT · arrives 6:00 AM ET

Forecast issued Wed 5:00 AM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±1 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 9pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 276 · SFO → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?