AA 2886 · SEA → PHL

departs 10:42 PM PT · arrives 7:12 AM ET

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 10pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling3,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2886 · SEA → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?