AA 2926 · TUS → DFW

took off 2:48 PM MT · landed 6:36 PM CT (scheduled 1:18 PM MT → 5:50 PM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±3 pts +20 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to DFW?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
✓
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 30 kt, 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

TUS (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.04 in

DFW (destination) Gusts30 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.25 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2926 · TUS → DFW

Odds over time

How late did it get to DFW?