AA 3013 · ORD → BUF

took off 3:41 PM CT · landed 5:43 PM ET (scheduled 2:29 PM CT → 5:12 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts −12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to BUF?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
✓
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 2pm departures from ORD are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ BUF usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.95 in

BUF (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3013 · ORD → BUF

Odds over time

How late did it get to BUF?