AA 3153 · PHL → MCO

departs 12:57 PM ET · arrives 3:35 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 17% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3153 · PHL → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?