AA 3161 · LAX → ORD

departs 11:31 PM PT · arrives 5:45 AM CT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

68% chance · ±0 pts +31 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
32%
15–30 min late
53%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft forecast at LAX that day

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.95 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3161 · LAX → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?