AA 3173 · ORD → JAX

departs 7:00 PM CT · arrives 10:24 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?

83% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to JAX?

On time or early
30%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 7pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JAX

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.95 in

JAX (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3173 · ORD → JAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to JAX?