Schedule: a typical summer Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3218 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, September 30

AA 3218 · LAX → DFW

departs 10:30 AM PT · arrives 3:53 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±0 pts +20 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
40%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
11%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 30 kt, 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Other factors

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts30 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.25 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3218 · LAX → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?