AA 3222 · SFO → DFW

departs 12:36 PM PT · arrives 6:15 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ 12pm departures from SFO are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at SFO that day

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts31 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.12 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3222 · SFO → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?