Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3258 LANDED 12:16 PM MT, ~12 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

AA 3258 · ORD → SLC

took off 10:28 AM CT · landed 12:16 PM MT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at SLC more than 15 minutes late?

63% chance · ±0 pts +15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 10am departures from ORD are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into SLC at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.95 in

SLC (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3258 · ORD → SLC

Odds over time