AA 32 · LAX → JFK

took off 11:20 AM PT · landed 7:17 PM ET (scheduled 11:05 AM PT → 7:46 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to JFK?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 11am departures from LAX are often late

↑ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 32 · LAX → JFK

Odds over time

How late did it get to JFK?