Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3314 LANDED 9:06 AM ET, ~21 MIN EARLY · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

AA 3314 · BNA → LGA

took off 6:16 AM CT · landed 9:06 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 14h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3314 · BNA → LGA

Odds over time