AA 353 · ORD → TPA

departs 8:29 PM CT · arrives 12:19 AM ET

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

76% chance · ±3 pts +14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to TPA?

On time or early
23%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
30%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ 8pm departures from ORD are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip1.03 in

TPA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.69 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 353 · ORD → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?