Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 512 IN THE AIR (OFF 4:55 PM CT, ETA 7:27 PM ET) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Today

AA 512 · ORD → LGA

took off 4:55 PM CT · expected to land 7:27 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

64% chance · ±1 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 3pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.88 in

LGA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 512 · ORD → LGA

Odds over time