Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 513 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday

AA 513 · LAX → PHL

departs 3:20 PM PT · arrives 11:39 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 3pm departures from LAX are often late

↑ LAX is busy at that time

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 513 · LAX → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?